• Wed. Feb 28th, 2024

What crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen thinks of BTC before a reversal occurs

  • Bitcoin could undergo another Capitulation event around Christmas – Cowen

  • The cryptocurrency is consolidating but lacks an upside momentum

  • BTC price could break into upside or downside

When will Bitcoin price (BTC/USD) bottom-up after slipping below the crucial $19,000 level? Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen believes Bitcoin has to undergo one capitulation event before a price reversal. Cowen examines the historical patterns to explain when this is likely to occur.

Cowen points out that the final capitulation event will occur around Christmas this year. A capitulation event occurs when a sizable portion of investors succumb to bear pressure and sell their holdings. Capitulation events are characterised by unusually high trading volumes coinciding with sharp price falls. When the price reaches its lowest point, it signals a market bottom that ushers in a bullish move.

Relating to the historical patterns, Cowen says that Bitcoin bear markets last around a year. In 2014, he says, the bear markets lasted 14 months, while in 2018, it was 12 months. Thus, if the current one is to reflect historical patterns, the dates around December 25th, 26th, and 27th, could be.

Bitcoin has been very choppy heading to this important prediction at year-end. Cowen thinks that $15,000 is the balanced price for Bitcoin. The analyst says that the cryptocurrency has to fall below this level to hit bottom. That will prompt attempts to recapture the fair value.

BTC outlook as price consolidates at $16,000

BTC/USD Chart by TradingView

On the daily chart, Bitcoin is choppy and consolidates around $16,000. The MACD indicator is in the bearish zone. The RSI remains below the midpoint, indicating that the sellers are in control.

What next for BTC?

Bitcoin lacks a directional bias. Although bulls have continually defended $16,000 successfully, they are unable to take the price higher. That’s despite the recent Fed statement indicating slower rate increases.

With the current choppy trading pattern, Bitcoin can go either way. Just as Cowen predicted, BTC could claim a new bottom. For that to happen, the price must break below the $16,000 support zone.

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